Mid Year Economic Forecast (MYEFO)

The opinions expressed in this report card are the authors only. Contra views are welcome.

Mark Cresswell
President
CPCA

Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook

Report card

Much of this short-term increase in spending is to cover election commitments and subsequent policy announcements which includes housing and rollover of social programs.

Some Roll-over programs that were due to “terminate” because they were only funded for a limited period have been allocated new funds. They include several health programs, domestic violence programs, and Closing the Gap initiatives.

This includes a $1.1 billion outlay for mental health, including new youth specialist centres and upgrades to existing Medicare and Headspace services, plus $233 million for science agency CSIRO.

Score:
8/10

“The increased support for mental health and youth is most welcome. Good to see the CSIRO getting some support as well.”

The government’s election promise to support the construction of 100,000 new homes reserved for first home buyer will see $10 billion over 8 years.

Thus comprises $2 billion in grants and $8 billion in loans, delivered in tandem with states and territories on vacant or public land, with construction to start in the next financial year.

21,000 first home buyers have taken advantage of the expanded 5 per cent deposit scheme since it came online in October.

Score:
7/10

“Now let’s see them built faster please”

The Commonwealth has increased its commitment from $26 billion to $44 billion for the Housing Future Fund, for social and affordable housing.

Score:
7/10

“As above, lets see them built, more and faster.”

$1.8 billion will be saved by changing the rules around “deeming”, the process that estimates how much pensioners and other welfare recipients earn from their investments. This will reduce the payments of some recipients through the means-testing system.

Score:
5/10

“In a time of economic hardship its not a good look to be hitting pensioners.”

The government will also raise $720 million over four years by increasing international student visa charges to $2,000, as promised at the last election.

Score:
6/10

“This is ok as long as 1) it goes to support local students and 2) doesn’t negatively impact universities.”

Overall

“A better bottom line than expected and more spending on social programs than expected. Overall a strong 7/10.”

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